Blurred Pictures and Muddy Waters

“There are no certainties, there are only probabilities”

The above quote is a placeholder maxim in the world of markets, economics and global finance, where the litany of independent but deeply interwoven variables leads to impossible amounts of unpredictability.

It’s really just shorthand for “nobody knows what the f*ck is gonna happen”.

To highlight this point, I present to you some insights and forecasts for 2025, straight from the mouths of a handful of economists, analysts, asset managers and market experts. Here is an abbreviated look at how they see 2025 shaking out.

Jim Bianco

Thinks the Fed should pause rate cuts as they will likely end up being inflationary and over-stimulative. Sees stocks as overvalued as a lot of positives are already baked into prices so there’s naturally less upside (Schiller PE Ratio theory) - and even moreso if bond yields rise and investors make the jump.

Matthew Piepenberg

“It’s a very narrow, overvalued market by every indicator and eventually the laws of gravity will apply”…but QE could sustain the market if the Fed breaks out the money bazooka. He says we’re already in a recession by most metrics and that at this point “we’re just buying growth through deficit spending”.

Mark Chaican

He’s bullish for 2025 but sees “choppy headwinds for the market” in mid-summer (Q3).

Joe Quinlan

Also bullish, not seeing a recession on the horizon and has a 6600 target for the S&P.

Steve Hanke

Says the economy will slow down in 2025 as the monetary policy changes of the last few years has essentially “baked it in the cake”. His core theme for equities is “overpriced, overvalued, overhyped”.

Peter Grandich

“…many issues we need to be concerned about…I don’t want to own general equities in the US.”

Jason Shapiro

He says people are more bullish now than before but this can also make things “more dangerous”.  This doesn’t mean there will be a recession but the risk vs. reward benefit isn’t there. He thinks the market will be higher at the end of the year but it’ll go lower before then.

David Rosenberg

“I think the economy is generally going to be weaker than expected” but we’ll have to see whether or not that means we go into recession. He likes gold and bonds but is conservative about the S&P.

Chris Vermeulen

Sees the market topping in Q1 then sideways, choppy trading after that - trending downwards over 1-2 years (possibly a 35-55% pullback over that time).

Peter Berezin

Says there are a lot of bulls out there but he’s bearish. He has set a 4500 EOY target for the S&P. Thinks we’ll go into a recession and that the economy is “more vulnerable now than people presume it to be.”

Felix Zulauf

Sees a medium-term correction starting in Q1 but has a 7000 EOY target for the S&P - he assumes that central banks will step in with QE/liquidity injection if there is a severe sell-off which would then push the S&P to new highs. Says manufacturing sector has already experienced a recession and that 2025 will be a “rollercoaster year”.

Tavi Costa

He says that stocks will remain resilient in 2025. He’s currently bullish on gold, silver and zinc and says that inflation could come back and that the treasury market could dry up forcing the Fed to step in as buyer of last resort.

Lobo Tiggre

Says that stocks are overvalued, economy isn’t in as good a shape as some ppl (including the Fed) are letting on and that inflation will remain sticky. He also says some sectors like manufacturing and commodities are already in rolling recessions.

Jim Rogers

“We’re close to the end” but he’s not ready to short the market yet - he’s just waiting to see how it plays out. He sees stocks and equities as overpriced but thinks commodities are still fairly valued - and would be buying silver over gold right now (although he owns both).

And there you have it, folks. We have some people bearish and some people bullish. We have a 4500 EOY target for the S&P and we also have a 7000 EOY target. We have some people anticipating a recession while others don’t see one on the horizon.

Hope the picture is clearer for you now.

😅💜